India’s Oil Supply to Be Shaken by New US Sanctions! Russian Crude May Take a Big Hit — Will Petrol and Diesel Prices Rise?
A major threat is looming over India’s cheap oil supply. Until now, discounted crude from Russia has provided relief to India, but the new US sanctions have shaken this lifeline. Experts believe that in the coming weeks, India’s imports of Russian oil could be hit hard.
A serious crisis is emerging for India’s affordable crude supply. The United States has imposed strict new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies — Rosneft and Lukoil — which may severely impact India’s Russian oil lifeline. For the past two years, Russia has been India’s largest oil supplier, helping maintain stable petrol and diesel prices. But now the big question is: Will fuel prices rise after these new US sanctions? Will Russia’s oil supply to India stop?
‘Sanction Shock’ on Russian Oil
According to experts, India’s purchase of Russian crude oil may fall sharply over the next few weeks. Though imports will not stop completely, the new sanctions will reduce supply at a surprisingly fast pace.
In November, India was buying 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day from Russia. But by December–January, this could drop to just 400,000 barrels per day, a fall of more than 70%.
Which Indian Companies Have Stopped Buying Russian Oil?
After the sanctions took effect, major Indian refining companies — Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals — have temporarily halted Russian oil purchases.
Only Nayara Energy, backed by Rosneft, will continue importing because it is already heavily dependent on Russian crude.
Why Won’t Russian Oil Stop Completely?
Experts say the sanctions target only certain companies — not the entire Russian oil industry.
This means Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, and smaller traders can still supply oil to India.
So Russian oil will not disappear; it will just arrive through more complex and indirect routes.
Will Petrol and Diesel Become Expensive?
If Russian supply declines sharply, India will have to buy costlier oil from the Middle East, the US, Latin America, and Africa.
This will increase refining companies’ costs, putting pressure on fuel prices. Refining margins may shrink, and fuel prices could rise in the future.
Rising Uncertainty for India
Experts predict a highly uncertain supply chain in the coming months.
New intermediaries, ship-to-ship transfers, alternative banking channels, and “clean” Russian traders will shape the new oil flow pattern.
Will Russian Oil to India Stop Completely?
A complete stop is unlikely, since Russia still offers the cheapest crude option for India.
The government’s priority remains affordable and stable fuel.
Also, the US has not imposed secondary sanctions on buyer countries like India.
Therefore, Russian oil will continue, but in a smaller, uncertain, and more secretive manner.
